The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a valuable tool for predicting the direction of the economy. In October, the Index fell, which has led to concerns about a potential recession on the horizon. However, despite this decline, no recession has yet occurred. This has led many economists to adjust their forecasts.
One economist who has made significant changes to her forecast is Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board. She explains that one reason we are not currently in a recession is due to the strength of consumer spending, which has exceeded expectations. Despite this, she still predicts a recession early next year. However, she believes that if it happens, it will be short and relatively mild. This is because there have been no dramatic declines in manufacturing or in the housing market.
Another economist who has changed his forecast is U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics. He previously predicted a recession but now believes that a soft landing is more likely due to strong consumer spending and stable manufacturing and housing markets. He also notes that he is willing to update his forecasts if new data emerges that surprises him.
Despite all these economic changes, Marketplace remains committed to providing accurate and accessible news that keeps people informed about what matters most to them