Soy, a main foreign currency generator in Argentina, has always been closely tied to the political party in power. In recent years, soy has seen a decline in prices in international markets and a strong production recovery in Argentina. The latest casualty of this relationship is President Javier Milei, who since his inauguration has seen an 11% drop in the price of soybeans in the Chicago market.
Comparing soy prices across different administrations shows an average price of US$460 during Milei’s era, which is lower than the previous average of US$483 under Alberto Fernández and US$330 under Mauricio Macri. Going back further, the Krichner governments also saw fluctuations in soy prices, with US$254 during Néstor’s era and US$425 in Cristina’s first term.
Despite these challenges, there is good news for soybean production. Despite a drought affecting last year’s production, it was estimated that production would reach 52 million tons this year. However, a recent heatwave may have negatively affected this outlook by causing some loss in soybeans’ potential.
Soy’s main role as a foreign currency generator remains prominent, with exports generating $13 billion in 2023. However, this is a significant decrease from the previous year due to the current government’s influence and forecast for exports to increase by 61.5% in 2024.
In addition to global trends affecting soy prices, the local market has also seen a decline due to factors such as devaluation of exchange rates and favorable harvest forecasts for the upcoming cycle. As pricing trends continue to affect both domestic and global markets for soybeans